Kick-off:
France are favoured with a 51% win probability in the Third Place match. Market-implied indicators signals point to an open, high-scoring match, with neither side holding a clear advantage in the match-winner market, but England still carry enough attacking threat to keep both-teams-to-score in play. Scoring pressure is more likely to build after half-time than arrive early.
3-5
18.6%
2-4
4.2%
1-3
3.9%
4-5
3.9%
2-2
3.3%
1-2
3.3%
This match profiles as high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals implied at 65.7% probability. France are expected to score at least once with 84.7% certainty, and 1-2 goals is their most likely range (Over 1.5: 60.4%). England's scoring outlook is healthy — their over 0.5 goals probability sits at 73.9%, meaning a clean sheet for France is unlikely at 26.6%.
The second half is projected to carry more weight, with 83.3% probability of at least one second-half goal versus 75.8% in the first half. Team to Score First favours France at 55.7%, while a goalless first 45 minutes has a 5.4% chance.
The most likely match script is France at half-time, France at full-time (29.9%). The second most probable path is a draw at half-time, France at full-time (15.4%), meaning France break a level first half to win. England's most likely winning script is England at half-time, England at full-time (13.4%). A comeback scenario — England leading then France winning — sits at just 4.4%.
England enter as clear underdogs at 25.1% win probability. Their probability of winning the Third Place match, including extra time and penalties, rises to approximately 37.0%. The combined Draw/England probability is 24.4%, meaning England have a realistic path to at least forcing extra time.