Kick-off:
France are favoured with a 40% win probability in this knockout tie. Market-implied indicators signals point to a tight, low-scoring match, with neither side holding a clear advantage in the match-winner market, but Spain still carry enough attacking threat to keep both-teams-to-score in play. Scoring pressure is more likely to build after half-time than arrive early.
0-2
39.8%
1-1
13.3%
0-1
12.4%
1-2
6.2%
0-3
6.2%
2-1
5.2%
Winner will face Argentina in the Final
This match profiles as low-scoring, with over 2.5 goals implied at 49.9% probability. France are expected to score at least once with 75.5% certainty, and a single goal is the most likely outcome (Over 1.5: 42.7%). Spain's scoring outlook is healthy — their over 0.5 goals probability sits at 70.3%, meaning a clean sheet for France is unlikely at 29.9%.
The second half is projected to carry more weight, with 77.1% probability of at least one second-half goal versus 66.0% in the first half. Team to Score First favours France at 48.4%, while a goalless first 45 minutes has a 10.1% chance.
The most likely match script is France at half-time, France at full-time (21.5%). The second most probable path is a draw at half-time, a draw at full-time (16.9%), meaning the sides stay level through both halves in regular time. Spain's most likely winning script is Spain at half-time, Spain at full-time (15.8%). A comeback scenario — Spain leading then France winning — sits at just 3.3%.
France enter as clear underdogs at 39.6% win probability. Their advancement chance, including extra time and penalties, rises to approximately 0%. The combined Draw/France probability is 34.7%, meaning France have a realistic path to at least forcing extra time.
If France advance, their championship probability rises from 0% to 0% (0.0). If Spain pull off a win, their title chance would jump from 58.9% to 58.9% (0.0). The winner will face Winner of England vs Argentina in the Final.