Kick-off:
Argentina are favoured with a 55% win probability in this knockout tie. Market-implied indicators signals point to a tight, low-scoring match, with Argentina are expected to control the main game state, and Switzerland may struggle to find the net. Scoring pressure is more likely to build after half-time than arrive early.
1-1
37.3%
1-0
18.3%
2-0
11.6%
2-1
7.9%
0-0
6.7%
0-1
4.6%
Winner will face England in the Semi-finals
This match profiles as low-scoring, with over 2.5 goals implied at 42.1% probability. Argentina are expected to score at least once with 77.8% certainty, and a single goal is the most likely outcome (Over 1.5: 47.4%). Switzerland's scoring outlook is more limited — their over 0.5 goals probability sits at 53.2%, meaning a clean sheet for Argentina remains a realistic outcome at 47.4%.
The second half is projected to carry more weight, with 72.5% probability of at least one second-half goal versus 61.5% in the first half. Team to Score First favours Argentina at 59.2%, while a goalless first 45 minutes has a 11.9% chance.
The most likely match script is Argentina at half-time, Argentina at full-time (30.9%). The second most probable path is a draw at half-time, Argentina at full-time (19.8%), meaning Argentina break a level first half to win. Switzerland's most likely winning script is Switzerland at half-time, Switzerland at full-time (8.4%). A comeback scenario — Switzerland leading then Argentina winning — sits at just 3.2%.
Switzerland enter as clear underdogs at 17.5% win probability. Their advancement chance, including extra time and penalties, rises to approximately 31.0%. The combined Draw/Switzerland probability is 22.1%, meaning Switzerland have a realistic path to at least forcing extra time.