Kick-off:
England are favoured with a 49% win probability in this knockout tie. Market-implied indicators signals point to a moderately open match, with neither side holding a clear advantage in the match-winner market, but Norway still carry enough attacking threat to keep both-teams-to-score in play. Scoring pressure is more likely to build after half-time than arrive early.
1-1
38.7%
0-1
9.5%
1-0
7.9%
0-0
7.3%
0-2
6.8%
1-2
5.9%
Winner will face Argentina in the Semi-finals
This match profiles as moderate-scoring, with over 2.5 goals implied at 56.4% probability. Norway are expected to score at least once with 68.9% certainty, and a single goal is the most likely outcome (Over 1.5: 34.4%). England's scoring outlook is healthy — their over 0.5 goals probability sits at 81.3%, meaning a clean sheet for Norway is unlikely at 17.9%.
The second half is projected to carry more weight, with 80.4% probability of at least one second-half goal versus 67.6% in the first half. Team to Score First favours England at 54.7%, while a goalless first 45 minutes has a 7.5% chance.
The most likely match script is England at half-time, England at full-time (27.2%). The second most probable path is a draw at half-time, England at full-time (16.8%), meaning England break a level first half to win. Norway's most likely winning script is Norway at half-time, Norway at full-time (12.6%). A comeback scenario — Norway leading then England winning — sits at just 4%.
Norway enter as clear underdogs at 25.1% win probability. Their advancement chance, including extra time and penalties, rises to approximately 38.1%. The combined Draw/Norway probability is 25.4%, meaning Norway have a realistic path to at least forcing extra time.